After forming our market thesis, here's how we decide which experiments are worth building. A practical framework for turning tech bets into focused action.

Experiment selection

Choose what to build

This guide shows how we make a market thesis. We use data and our gut to find good tech trends and make smart bets that fit our team.

Forming market thesis

Our structured approach to spotting tech trends and turning them into winning bets. From identifying early signals to building solutions that matter.

Market thesis

How we craft a market thesis

LLM-generated market thesis documents following our five-step methodology. Think of this as our research workspace where we collect and analyze tech trends before crafting final versions for our arc series.

Market thesis raw analysis

A market thesis on Agentic AI, autonomous AI systems that execute complex tasks with reasoning and adaptability. We analyze its potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

Agentic AI thesis

A market thesis on Algorithmic Stablecoin, blockchain-based digital currencies maintaining stability through algorithms. We analyze its potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

Algorithmic Stablecoin thesis

A market thesis on Bitcoin and building with Bitcoin, leveraging its decentralized blockchain for secure, transparent transactions and innovative applications. We analyze its potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

Bitcoin thesis

A market thesis on DeFAI, blending Decentralized Finance with AI (LLMs and Agentic AI) to create trustless, intelligent financial systems. We analyze its potential, map solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

DeFAI thesis

A market thesis on Decentralized Finance, blockchain-based financial systems enabling trustless, transparent transactions. We analyze its potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

DeFi thesis

A market thesis on Large Language Models, AI systems enabling human-like text generation and reasoning. We analyze their potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

LLM thesis

A market thesis on Platform Ops in the AI era, leveraging AI to automate and optimize infrastructure management and workflows. We analyze its potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

Platform Ops thesis

A market thesis on Spatial Computing, enabling immersive AR/VR experiences and spatial interactions. We analyze its potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

Spatial Computing thesis

A market thesis on Stablecoin, blockchain-based digital currencies pegged to stable assets for reliable transactions. We analyze its potential, map infrastructure and application solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

Stablecoin thesis

A market thesis on Zero-Knowledge Proofs, cryptographic protocols enabling privacy-preserving verification. We analyze their potential, map solutions for startups and Dwarves’ internal operations, and propose top experiment ideas and growth strategies to build expertise, aligning with our strategic verticals.

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